Autonomous Vehicle Implementation Predictions: Implications for Transport Planning
July 2017, Victoria Transport Policy Institute
Autonomous Vehicles|Self-Driving Vehicles Enacted Legislation
June 2017, National Conference of State Legislatures (NCSL)
The Numbers Don't Lie: Self-Driving Cars Are Getting Good
February 2017, Wired
Artificial Intelligence and Life in 2030: One Hundred Year Study on Artificial Intelligence
September 2016, Stanford University
Federal Automated Vehicles Policy: Accelerating the Next Revolution in Roadway Safety
September 2016, U.S. Department of Transportation (DOT)
Self-Driving Cars and Insurance
July 2016, III Insurance Information Institute
Vehicle Cybersecurity: DOT and Industry Have Efforts Under Way, but DOT Needs to Define Its Role in Responding to a Real-world Attack
Government Accountability Office (GAO), March 2016
Self-Driving Cars: Disruptive or Incremental?
June 2015, Applied Innovation Review, UC Berkeley
GAO Report: Intelligent Transportation Systems
November 2013, U.S. GAO
Are we ready for Self-Driving Cars?
January 2013, CIPR Newsletter
Self-Driving Cars: The Next Revolution
August 2012, KPMG Study
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According to the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA),"autonomous" or "self-driving" vehicles are those in which operation of the vehicle occurs without direct driver input to control the steering, acceleration, and braking and are designed so that the driver is not expected to constantly monitor the roadway while operating in self-driving mode. The Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers predict that 75% of cars on the roads in the world will be autonomous by 2040. Moreover, a 2012, KPMG Study foresees self-driving cars hitting showrooms in 2019.
Google® is the pioneer in autonomous driving technology. In 2005, Google established a team of engineers, led by Sebastian Thrun, who developed a robotic vehicle that won a contest sponsored by the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA). Since 2009, Google has been test-driving autonomous vehicles on public roads and claims their self-driving vehicles have traveled about 2.3 million miles, the equivalent of 300 years of human driving experience. Only one accident, in 2016, was reported to be the fault of Google's self-driving car. Google believes that self-driving cars can make driving more efficient and safer by eliminating distracted driving and other human error. According to NHTSA, fatalities in distraction affected crashes increased 8.8%, 3,477 in 2015, compared to 3,197 in 2014.
In December 2016, Google's parent company, Alphabet Inc., officially launched its self-driving car project into a new company called Waymo. Since then, the company has added over 500 Chrysler Pacifica minivans to its fleet of self-driving cars, advancing autonomous driving technology. As excitement and momentum for self-driving cars grows, there are numerous insurance questions that will need to be addressed before such vehicles take the road. For example: What happens if a self-driving car gets into an accident? Who is liable for the damages? Will the human "copilot" be at fault or will the car's manufacturer? Will the 'driver' have to maintain a constant vigil on the road ahead at all times? What are they allowed to do inside the vehicle…can they nap, read a book or text message while the car does all the navigating? Will they even need a driver's license? A 2017 KMPG report highlights the "chaotic middle" the auto insurance industry is facing in this new period.
There is also a long list of safety and legal issues to iron out before self-driving cars hit the road. Currently, twenty states have passed legislation related to autonomous vehicles. In addition, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) has issued a number of recommendations on the issue, including its plans for research on related safety issues and recommendations for states related to the testing, licensing, and regulation of self-driving vehicles. Getting the technology to make the vehicles is only half the challenge; the other half will be creating a legal, liability and regulatory framework to govern their use on public streets.